The end of the paperback?

Estimates from the Association of American Publishers show that for January 2010 ebook sales amounted to $31,900,000, a near 370% jump over sales for the same month in 2009.

It is estimated that Apple will sell 12.9 million iPads in 2010, nearly twice its initial forecast of 7.1 million units (source: iSuppli). Estimated sales in 2011 exceed 36 million. The hype surrounding its launch has died down, but will the iPad really revolutionise the way we ‘consume’ content?

What about other portable reading options? Are we approaching the end of the paperback?

The ascent to power of the app

Years of dwindling newspaper and magazine sales have forced the publishing industry to accept the uncomfortable reality that people are increasingly reading news and articles on computers rather than paper. Some publishers, like the Guardian, have successfully employed the model of free content supported by advertising. Others, like the Financial Times, charge for content.

Smartphones have the obvious huge advantage of portability and their growth has accelerated the move away from printed media.

Major newspaper and magazine publishers have scrambled to release apps that readers can download onto their phones and take with them.

iPad vs Kindle

The iPad’s main competitor in relation to ebooks is the Kindle, a device first released by Amazon in November 2007. The Kindle is designed exclusively for reading books and earlier this month Amazon announced that sales of ebooks for the Kindle had reached ‘tipping point’ and were outpacing sales of hardcover books (though still a long way off paperback sales).

The iPad and the new iPhone 4 both come with the iBook application pre-loaded. This application allows users  to purchase and read ebooks through the iTunes store. The iPad combines a reasonable reading experience with strong rich content functionality. This gives the iPad clear advantages for news and magazine content, but the most significant factor may simply be that users would rather have one device than two and will therefore plump for an iPad over both a laptop and a Kindle.

Here to stay

It is widely mooted that recent trends will spell the end of newspapers. Do books face the same fate?

Sales of eBooks are rising, but still account for a small slice of total revenues. In 2009, according to the Publishers Association, digital sales accounted for less than 5% of all book sales globally.

Books still elicit emotions that cannot be replicated by their electronic rivals. Books have a power to draw romance and loyalty from their readers that has never been matched by newspapers and magazines. Tattered corners and softening spines have a unique power to link reader with subject. The tactile experience is, for many users, a core part of the pleasure.

“Some books are to be tasted, others to be swallowed, and some few to be chewed and digested: that is, some books are to be read only in parts, others to be read, but not curiously, and some few to be read wholly,and with diligence and attention.”

~ Francis Bacon ~

So paperbacks are here to stay for some time yet and are likely to always have a niche, but every leap forward such as that made by the iPad (and rival devices like Kindle) will shift the balance of power from paper to machine.